Tuesday January 19th, 2010 NHL Picks

Toronto @ Atlanta
The Thrashers lost a 1-0 game to Florida on Monday night while post 14 shots on goal in the third period. The Maple Leafs managed a win against Nashville by the score of 3-2 Monday as well. Both teams will have played the night before. Off of zero days rest and the last game being a loss the Thrashers are 2-1-1 and the Leafs are 1-3-1 when off of a win. The Maple Leafs have been poor to say the least only averaging 2 goals a game while allowing 3.6 goals up a game. The Maple Leafs have been struggling in goal and have been using both Toskala and Gustavsson and will likely have Toskala in on Tuesday. He has been 5-8 this year when in an underdog role and will battle a tough Atlanta when returning to home after an away loss. The Thrashers have won the first game at home after and away loss in four instances in the last month and a half. I like the Thrashers to jump out early and rebound from the Florida loss when Volkoun stole the show. Next day games after a loss are coaches dream and Atlanta should be focused here. The Leafs have the lead in games in Atlanta 8-3, but I like that to sway to Atlantas advantage in this spot.

PLAY Atlanta -120
-240/200
WON +200

San Jose @ Los Angeles
Monday night SJ exploded on struggling Calgary and scored 9 goals in a 9-1 route. The Los Angeles Kings have had 2 days rest and will host the Sharks on Tuesday. Statistically the two teams have been involved in low to mid scoring defensive bouts and I look for the same to follow here. Look for San Jose to play a much tigher road game and the Kings should be able to limit the number of shots on goal as well. The past 5 games both have been excellent at killing penalties and have allowed 1.8 goals a game (sanjose) and 2.2 for (lakings). I anticipate a close match-up possibly ending in overtime or the shootout. Four of the last nine games have ended that way. Multiple areas of focus for me point to the under in this game, as do the below trends.
Under is 5-1 in Kings last 6 vs. Pacific.

Under is 10-4 in Kings last 14 vs. Western Conference.
Under is 5-2 in Kings last 7 vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
Under is 5-2 in Kings last 7 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.
Under is 7-3 in Kings last 10 home games.
Under is 11-5 in Kings last 16 overall.Under is 3-0-1 in Sharks last 4 road games.

Under is 4-0-1 in Sharks last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Under is 5-1 in Sharks last 6 overall.
Under is 4-1 in Sharks last 5 vs. Western Conference.
Under is 21-6-2 in Sharks last 29 games playing on 0 days rest.
Under is 6-2-1 in Sharks last 9 vs. a team with a winning record.
Under is 21-8-2 in Sharks last 31 in the third game of a 3-in-4 days situation.

PLAY Under total 5.5 goals
-110/110
LOSS -110